Australia's central bank finds AI hitting young workers first, especially in software and customer service

AI has barely displaced any jobs in Australia so far, but young workers entering highly exposed fields like software development are faring worse.

An analysis by Mike Major for Australia's central bank (RBA) built a monitoring system that focuses on the areas where effects are likely to appear first, namely entry-level workers and highly AI-exposed occupations such as programming, clerical work, and customer service.

According to the analysis, job postings have fallen across all groups since ChatGPT launched in late 2022, with the steepest drop in the highest-exposure group. In that group, workers aged 15 to 24 and young college graduates have weaker employment rates and higher unemployment than older workers.

Major cautions against drawing early conclusions, since the study does not establish direct causation and measures only theoretical exposure, not actual use by companies. Post-pandemic shifts in the business cycle or in remote work could also be driving the numbers. According to SEEK data, AI is complementing existing work while also creating new demand for AI skills.

Other studies paint a similar picture, with caveats

An August 2025 Stanford study based on millions of US payroll records found a similar pattern, with employment among 22- to 25-year-olds in AI-exposed occupations down 13 percent in relative terms since late 2022 and nearly 20 percent among young software developers. More experienced workers in the same occupations held steady or gained ground.

A March 2026 Anthropic study also found signs of declining hiring among 22- to 25-year-olds in exposed occupations, with job-finding rates down about 14 percent. It found no systematic rise in overall unemployment, however. Theoretical automation potential and actual AI use are far apart, according to the study.

Anthropic offers a company-level example. According to an internal review, the share of junior hires in technical roles has fallen from 27 percent to 9 percent since early 2025. In August 2026, AI agents across the company were already logging six times as many hours as human employees. Anthropic concedes that, as an extremely AI-intensive software company, it is a special case. Even so, researchers warn of a "tragedy of the cognitive commons", in which disappearing junior roles lead to a future shortage of experienced professionals, assuming those professionals are still needed.

A large study of 25,000 workers in Denmark confirms the lack of economy-wide impact. Despite a 64 percent AI adoption rate, researchers found no measurable changes in wages or hours worked. Workers saved an average of just 2.8 percent of their working time.

A January 2026 analysis of 10.6 million LinkedIn profiles and US unemployment data, however, cautions against blaming the downturn on AI alone. The research team led by Morgan Frank at the University of Pittsburgh found that the problems in exposed occupations started in early 2022, months before ChatGPT launched. Macroeconomic factors like the Fed's shift in interest rate policy or a correction after pandemic-era hiring surges may play a bigger role than previously assumed.

At the same time, AI is creating new demand. According to the World Economic Forum's "Future of Jobs Report 2025", 77 percent of surveyed companies are prioritizing upskilling over job cuts. WEF researchers project a net gain of 78 million jobs by 2030. According to LinkedIn, AI-related job postings grew sixfold in one year.

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