指数观点#607：互联网面临攻击，AGI压缩与永不到来的下一次石油冲击

Hi all, here’s what’s in today’s issue #607:

• The internet is under attack: My short and long view of the internet’s future

• The timeline for artificial general intelligence: Demis Hassabis now expects AGI sooner than he previously forecast. But can we test and apply AI’s discoveries fast enough?

• Electric vehicles and energy security: Electric cars are helping oil-importing countries reduce their exposure to oil disruptions. I look at the security dividend from electrification.

Also: a Russian satellite’s close encounter, turning mercury into gold and self-destructing plastics… Enjoy!

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The internet’s Wuhan moment

AI is turning every minor bug into a serious vulnerability. Cyberspace is under relentless attack; we’re back in January 2020. In the short term, I argue we’ll have to sacrifice some of the internet’s openness to stay safe. In the long term, I believe a plausible path to something better exists. The pandemic gave us mRNA, and this crisis could give us software and an internet we can trust.

An additional reflection since I wrote the piece on Friday: in many instances of technological change, we’ve seen some kind of pollution intensify. Domestication of animals brought us closer to livestock and exposure to zoonotic diseases with which we still contend. Urbanization amplified disease spread; we responded with sanitation. We shouldn’t be blasé about what may happen to the internet, but we shouldn’t default to catastrophe either.

Read the essay here.

Blink, and you’ll miss AGI

keeps bringing AGI closer. At Davos in January, he estimated five to ten years. He subsequently cited three to five. Now he tells the WSJ two to three. Demis is one of the field’s more measured voices, so this feels meaningful. He’ll calibrate with what he sees in his own lab. Even if the definition of AGI is contested (or perhaps not useful), Demis is marking out a threshold of capability with which we’ll need to contend.

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