US adults are no more likely to face cyber incidents than when Claude Fable 5 launched
US adults are no more likely to face cyber incidents than when Claude Fable 5 launched
The proportion of US adults reporting at least one cyber event in the past 12 months did not show a reliable change after the release of Claude Fable 5, decreasing from 46% (90% CI: 44% to 49%) in June to 45% (42% to 47%) in September, and there was no significant difference in the proportion of respondents frequently using AI (from 53% to 51%).
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In this analysis, we examine the change between two poll waves in the share of US adults who report having experienced at least one cyber incident in the previous 12 months. We find no change for incidents in aggregate, and no specific incident type rose in a way we can reliably statistically detect. The share reporting any incident changed from 46% (90% CI: 44% to 49%) in June to 45% (42% to 47%) in September.
We also find no detectable change among respondents who report frequent AI use. Among them, the share changed from 53% (90% CI: 48% to 59%) to 51% (45% to 57%).
Other indicators and publicized incidents suggest increasing AI cyber capabilities may be affecting measurable security outcomes. We previously documented a sharp increase in serious vulnerability disclosures in June, followed by a further increase in July. The incident involving OpenAI models hacking Hugging Face is one documented example of what frontier models can do offensively capabilities.
In addition to closed models, cyber capabilities among open-weight models have increased as well. Among these, the US Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) assessed the open-frontier model GLM-5.3 as having similar cyber capabilities to US frontier models around the time of the Fable 5 release.
Our polling examines a different outcome: whether a larger share of ordinary Americans report experiencing cyber incidents.
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Cyber Incidents in the Past 12 Months, June vs September 2026 (Ipsos)
CSV, Updated Oct. 2, 2026
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Polling on AI usage
Tracking how employed Americans use AI at work, across demographics.
Source: Epoch AI · epoch.ai